AirJoule: Reframing the path to de-risking, dilution, and dollars

Continuing Coverage | October 2025

As covered in our original initiation, the market narrative around AirJoule has largely focused on its long-term vision of extracting water from ambient air using waste heat. While that thesis remains attractive, we now see three overlooked near-term levers that sharpen the R/R profile ahead of scaled water generation: (1) compelling unit economics in industrial dehumidification already present today, (2) bounded dilution scenarios that can be credibly underwritten at current market cap, and (3) a tangible de-risking roadmap, tied to early revenue proof points in 2025–2026.

These developments weren’t central to our initiating coverage framework, but they meaningfully shift the time horizon on value realization. As such, we’re not upgrading yet, but we are getting deeper in our diligence.