Disclosure: The Sophon Trajectory Score is a proprietary research framework developed for analytical purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, investment product, or advisory service. Olive Asset Management is not currently soliciting or accepting external capital.
The core question behind every great investment is simple: is this company’s trajectory improving or deteriorating faster than the market realizes?
The Sophon Trajectory Score (STS) is our attempt to measure that motion — not in static valuation multiples or financial ratios, but in behavioral momentum. It’s a live, adaptive signal that reflects how a company’s fundamentals, management behavior, and competitive position are evolving in real time.
Why Trajectory Matters
Traditional financial analysis tends to freeze a company in time. Ratios, margins, and growth rates are all snapshots. But the real game is dynamic: a company that is getting better faster compounds value long before reported numbers catch up.
The Sophon Trajectory Score was designed to quantify this “rate of change” in the behavioral domain — how sentiment, execution quality, reinvestment intensity, and cultural energy shift ahead of the data. Our belief is that markets are efficient in level, but slow in slope. The slope — the vector of improvement or decay — is where alpha hides.
How the STS Works
Each company in our coverage universe receives a rolling 0–100 trajectory score, updated through a combination of:
Primary research: ongoing stakeholder interviews with customers, competitors, and former employees.
Quantitative inputs: hiring patterns, app telemetry, insider transactions, and revision momentum.
Behavioral drift signals: management tone, product cadence, pricing posture, and reinvestment discipline.
A score above 70 indicates accelerating fundamentals and positive behavioral feedback loops; below 30 suggests negative drift. Between 40–60, we interpret as stable trajectory — no clear inflection yet.
The system is complementary to the Sophon Score, our long-term compounding potential framework. While the Sophon Score assesses a company’s structural quality, the STS measures its current direction of travel. One is a compass, the other a speedometer.
Sophon Trajectory Score (STS) Rubric
Each company is scored 0–10 on the following ten behavioral vectors.
5 = stable trajectory, >5 = improving, <5 = deteriorating.
The total STS (0–100) reflects the weighted sum of these dynamics.
1. Demand Momentum
Focus: end-market activity, order trends, new customer wins
Positive (7–10): accelerating orders, new logos, improving renewal cadence
Negative (0–3): delayed renewals, shrinking pipelines, customer attrition
2. Pricing Power
Focus: ability to hold or raise price without losing share
Positive: successful price increases, stable discounts, mix shift upmarket
Negative: discounting pressure, margin compression, loss of pricing discipline
3. Product Velocity
Focus: cadence of innovation, roadmap delivery, product quality
Positive: new launches gaining traction, improved release cycles, user adoption
Negative: missed releases, product stagnation, reliability issues
4. Hiring & Reinvestment
Focus: hiring trends, reinvestment discipline, R&D or capex posture
Positive: selective hiring, renewed product investment, confidence in expansion
Negative: hiring freezes, deferred projects, under-investment in growth
5. Customer Sentiment
Focus: tone and feedback from customers and partners
Positive: improving satisfaction, strong NPS, visible advocacy
Negative: deteriorating service, customer churn, reputation slippage
6. Competitive Dynamics
Focus: relative market share, channel feedback, switching patterns
Positive: clear share gains, strong differentiation, partner enthusiasm
Negative: loss of key accounts, increased competitive intensity, feature lag
7. Management Tone
Focus: tone in public communication and stakeholder interactions
Positive: consistent, data-anchored, confident but measured
Negative: defensive language, narrative shifts, excessive promotionalism
8. Financial Signaling
Focus: insider transactions, buybacks, capital allocation, guidance quality
Positive: insider buying, credible guidance, disciplined reinvestment
Negative: insider selling, opaque disclosures, erratic guidance behavior
9. Operational Execution
Focus: delivery reliability, quality control, cost discipline
Positive: smooth operations, rising productivity, on-time delivery
Negative: service lapses, missed deadlines, cost overruns
10. Cultural Energy
Focus: internal morale, leadership stability, organizational tempo
Positive: stable leadership, visible pride, internal promotions
Negative: turnover spikes, layoffs, internal conflict, complacency
Interpretation Bands
70–100 → accelerating fundamentals; behavioral inflection confirmed
40–69 → neutral to mildly positive; steady state or mixed signals
0–39 → deteriorating fundamentals; negative drift or early decay
Usage Notes
The STS is directional, not absolute — it measures change over time.
Updated quarterly through structured interviews, telemetry, and management tone analysis.
Always paired with the Sophon Score (structural quality) for a dual-lens view:
Sophon Score = “What it is.”
STS = “What it’s becoming.”
From Static Analysis to Dynamic Observation
The STS turns research into a continuous process rather than an episodic one. Contractors and analysts inside our Olive Asset Management initiative use the same framework daily to conduct 5–10 structured interviews per company, tracking changes in tone, satisfaction, and competitive motion across time.
When aggregated, these observations form a living signal — a behavioral heat map that captures who is gaining share, who is coasting, and who is quietly unraveling.
This doesn’t replace deep financial modeling or valuation work; it enhances it. It helps determine when to size up or exit a position, which companies to revisit, and how to allocate research time toward those experiencing unseen inflection.
A Framework for the Behavioral Era
The next generation of alpha won’t come from new datasets alone, but from a better ontology of change — the ability to detect behavioral shifts before they manifest in earnings.
The Sophon Trajectory Score is a step toward that vision: a structured way to convert qualitative observations into quantitative conviction. Over time, it will help identify future compounders early and detect the first signs of decay in yesterday’s champions.
In a world where information is abundant and attention is scarce, the edge moves from knowing to noticing. The STS is built to notice.